A new study has been released with some projections about the future of Pakistan. I’m still reading it, but here’s the Reuters Pakistan blog’s highlights on it:
Pakistan is likely to drift further away from the west in the years ahead as pressure from Islamist groups and anti-Americanism undermine the traditional moorings of the secular pro-western elite, according to a report just released by the Legatum Institute.
The report rules out the possibility of a Taliban takeover or of Pakistan becoming a failed state, predicting it is most likely to ”muddle through” with the army continuing to play a powerful role behind the scenes in setting foreign and security policy. “Rather than an Islamist takeover, you should look at a subtle power shift from a secular pro-Western society to an Islamist anti-American one,” said Jonathan Paris, the author of the report.
I disagree with that conclusion, but then again I only read Pakistani-English language media and Pakistani bloggers, and presumably the author of the report has access to a great deal more information than I do. He continues:
Pakistan has been down the Islamist road before, particularly during the Zia years. And public opinion turned against the hardline Islamist practices of the Taliban when they occupied the Swat valley last year. But while people may be willing to argue against the Taliban, it is less clear that society as a whole will resist the creeping Islamisation wrought by Islamist political parties and militant organisations, particularly in Punjab province, unless the state can deliver economic growth along with a reliable and speedy legal system.
I thought the strong independent judiciary was a point of pride for many Pakistanis.
