Ahmed Rashid was on Fresh Air discussing recent developments in Afghanistan.
Mr. RASHID: Well, I think the very big question is why now? I mean, why have the Pakistanis now arrested him? Because his whereabouts were certainly known to the Pakistani intelligence services, the ISI, for many, many years. And if it means that the Pakistanis are now serious about reining in the Taliban, well, of course, that’s a very positive step. That’s something that NATO and the Americans have wanted all along.
However, speculation from Kabul – and I’ve been speaking to officials in Kabul – their speculation is somewhat different. The first is that, you know, the Americans, the CIA could have discovered his whereabouts and then, you know, insisted that the ISI arrest him.
The second thing is that it was very well-known for several months now, and I knew this personally, that Mullah Baradar was actually in touch with the Kabul authorities, holding talks with them through not directly, but indirectly through his representatives. They were meeting in Saudi Arabia, and he was also meeting with Kabul representatives in Kandahar, the major – the second city in Afghanistan.
Now, one speculation is that these talks were moving forward, and perhaps the Pakistanis arrested him because he was talking to the Kabul authorities above and beyond the Pakistanis, who are very keen to make sure that any dialogue that happens between the Americans and President Karzai and the Taliban take place with Pakistani mediation, Pakistani brokership, if you like.
GROSS: So what kind of information do you think that interrogators are trying to get now from Baradar?
Mr. RASHID: Well, you know, I don’t think that I mean, obviously, there’s going to be a mild sort of interrogation, if he knows where Mullah Omar is or Osama bin Laden or anyone else. But I think he’s going to be treated very well because I think in the long term, what both the Americans and the Pakistanis would want out of him is to use him in negotiations with the Taliban leadership.
I mean, one speculation is that now that he’s been arrested, he could be used much more effectively to negotiate with Mullah Omar and others because he could be allowed to meet with the other Taliban leaders, he could meet with Kabul authorities, he could meet with the Americans, et cetera. So I don’t think he’s going to be, you know, tortured or anything like that. I think he’s going to be kept in a safe house. He’s probably going to be interrogated about, you know, other leaderships, et cetera, and certainly the Americans will pursue him about the whereabouts of al-Qaida.
But I think this arrest will mean that we may well see a speeding-up of the negotiations between the Taliban and the Americans and others.