British, French and US military aircraft are preparing to protect the Libyan rebel stronghold of Benghazi after the United Nations security council voted in favour of a no-fly zone and air strikes against Muammar Gaddafi’s forces. With Gaddafi’s troops closing in on Benghazi, the French prime minister, Francois Fillon, said “time is of the essence” and that France would support military action set to take place within hours. Jets could take off from French military bases along the Mediterranean coast, about 750 miles from Libya. Several Arab countries would join the operation. The 15-member security council voted in favour of a resolution authorising “all necessary measures short of an occupation force” to protect civilians. Ten countries including Britain, the US and France, supported the resolution, none opposed it and five, including Russia, China and Germany, abstained.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/17/libya-un-security-council-air
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abunoor
Maitham 6:35 am on March 18, 2011 Permalink
Well, this probably rules out a serious assault on Benghazi. A no-fly-zone is no sweat for Gaddafi– but massive air strikes are another matter.
Don’t expect this to be over anytime soon, though. Gaddafi has lots of options. If he leaves his forces in defensive positions he can compel the foreign coalition to launch larger, more aggressive, and less effective airstrikes, which will have an effect on public opinion. If he parks his tanks in cities and towns he can force the coalition to either leave him alone or kill civilians.
If the foreign coalition is not willing to launch offensive airstikes on towns and cities and kill civilians, the rebel army has little chance of making military headway. Which means a stalemate.
Even if Qaddafi’s forces were subjected to the most intense airstrikes for many months, and the rebel army received arms and training from Western sponsors, it is unlikely they would ever be able to seize Tripoli. Any serious military engagement in Tripoli would be very, very bloody.
Plus, if Qaddafi were facing massive foreign air strikes and losing ground, he could easily decide to blow up refineries, oil wells, and other critical infrastructure and say British airplanes did it.
Realistically, this will end up in negotiations.
aziz 7:17 am on March 18, 2011 Permalink
the foreign minister was just on AJE saying that they will issue an immediate “cease fire”
I think the nofly has Gaddhafi really spooked.
Maitham 9:01 am on March 20, 2011 Permalink
I never thought the Arab League would turn so quickly, but here it is:
“Arab League chief Amr Moussa said what was happening was not what Arabs had envisaged when they called for the imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya.
“What is happening in Libya differs from the aim of imposing a no-fly zone, and what we want is the protection of civilians and not the bombardment of more civilians,” he said.
In comments carried by Egypt’s official state news agency, Moussa also said he was calling for an emergency Arab League meeting.”
Not that the Arab League is necessarily very popular among Arabs, but it was an important fig leaf for the Western coalition. What now?