Pakistani analysts express concern about US escalation into Pakistan – both drones and US troops – during next summer’s fighting season.
With the Afghan winter traditionally making guerrilla warfare harder, there is effectively one fighting season left – the summer of 2010 – before US troops may start to scale down.
Pakistan analysts say that next summer US military planners primed for war may get increasingly frustrated they cannot bring the battle to a Taliban just sitting across the border.
‘In that survival game, the Taliban may cross into Pakistan. Now there is a timetable, they might just avoid combat,’ said Tanvir Ahmed Khan, a former Pakistani foreign secretary and now chairman of the Institute of Strategic Studies.
‘If that comes true, the Americans would be really tempted to go after them at a scale we haven’t seen before, mostly likely with drones and perhaps also with special operations.’
Related: US diplomat escalates accusations about Al Qaeda presence in Pakistan.
A senior US diplomat on Friday went a step further than restating Washington’s assertion about the presence of Taliban shura in Quetta and insisted that some Al Qaeda leadership could also be there.
Pakistan authorities are also worried that the likely areas where any action would take place are high-population refugee camps.
