I dig Fareed, I really do. But when I ripped his simplistic analysis of the “three forces”(democracy, nationalism, religion) I was correct. The force of nationalism preserved the young islamic republic and was the prime directive in the 80s, just fierce nationalism and healthy paranoia preseved the young Union in Jackson’s time. Now we see Khamenei trying to use nationalism to maintain power, by accusing Mousavi of being an agent of anti-nationalist forces, and a brand of fundamentalist Islam to maintain status quo. The Green Wave is using al-Islam to de-legitimize the regime, and national pride in the concept of an Islamic republic operating under the rule of law, ie democracy (I have come to loathe that word, I can hardly bear to use it).
Also Mousavi is a seyyed, a descendant of the line of the Imam. I don’t think Shariatmadari or the Baseej can touch him, and that is likely why he has not been arrested or killed.
The last thing Khamenei and Nejad need is a seyyed martyr.
Neda is giving them enough trouble, and that is why they are working furiously to discredit her death.