thabet
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02:43:18 am on August 19, 2008 | # | |
Counting people in the US: “White people” may be a minority in the US by 2042. And apparently it is difficult to count the number of Jews, Muslims and other smaller religious groups who live in the Land of the Free.
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Tariq Nelson 8:04 am on August 19, 2008 | #
when compared to studies done by other independent agencies the Muslims’ claimed # of 6-8 million appears to be a gross exaggeration. The average number by other demographers is about 2-3 million - which seems more accurate.
However most Muslims repeat the 6-8 million number as if it is dogma and (for a Muslim) to question it is almost tantamount to questioning Islam. (While a non-Muslim who questions it is painted as an “Islamophobe”)
The numbers may be pretty accurate in cities with large numbers of Muslims (NYC area, Philly, Detroit, etc) but exaggerated in areas that do not have as many Muslims such as Memphis, Little Rock and Louisville, Ky.
In Memphis I used to hear a number as high as 25,000 thrown around. The number is probably closer to 8,000-10,000 considering that the total (men, women, children) number of Muslims that show up for Eid prayers is usually around 3,000. The number of converts (and their children) in that number is only around 150-200.
The formula for Muslim demographers is to take the number of the Eid congregation and arbitrarily multiply it by three (to count the “unmosqued”). So given that formula, you get about 24,000-30,000 Muslims in Memphis. I just don’t see it.
Then I witness Muslim leaders when speaking about Islam, project the growth of Islam in this country as mostly the result of conversions. They will speak of how many people accept Islam, then talk about all the new mosques, then repeat the “fastest growing religion” myth.
Anyone that is honest knows that the growth of Islam in this country in the past 20 years or so has been due mostly to “transfer growth”.
Willow 8:52 am on August 19, 2008 | #
Tariq, insightful as always…
Was it you who quoted the ‘for every one person who enters Islam, one leaves’ statistic? I thought that was really interesting and wanted to see the source, but forgot to ask.
Tariq Nelson 8:08 pm on August 19, 2008 | #
Willow,
No I didn’t say that, but I can certainly believe it. Dr. Jeffrey Lang also speaks on that topic in his book ‘Losing My Religion’
razib 9:58 am on August 20, 2008 | #
surveys are best. they may undercount, but there are way fewer confusions about how to “count” someone as a member of religion X. e.g., if you use “church membership rolls” it way overcounts catholics compared to evangelical protestants because the latter are pretty religious, so to speak, of purging their rolls of those who aren’t regular attendees.
Sy 2:02 pm on August 20, 2008 | #
CAIR/MAS/ISNA are doing a mass survey of mosques right now in the hopes of perhaps getting a more definitive number, and although I am not a pride in numbers guy, having gone to a number of overfilling mosques in both the Houston and DC area make me lean toward the heavier figure.
Tariq Nelson 12:44 am on August 21, 2008 | #
When I was a little boy, I remember being shocked to find out that blacks were only about 10% of the population of the USA. EVERYONE I was around, went to school with and lived with were black!
Yes there are a lot of Muslims in places like Houston and here in the DC area, but you have to remember that many major and medium sized cities have small populations of Muslims. Show me a full one in Houston and I will show you an empty one in Little Rock, Arkansas.
It just gets very difficult to arrive at the 6 million number without exaggerating. And keep in mind that they have been saying there are 6 million Muslims in the US since the mid 1990’s. Certainly if that number is correct, then the number of Muslims must be around 7-8 million by now right? I doubt they will report a number that high.
CAIR/MAS/ISNA’s methodology for counting Muslims (taking estimated number of “mosqued” and multiply by 3) has been called into question. This is political
Sy 6:08 am on August 21, 2008 | #
Absolutely there are larger number of muslims in cities, and yes, obviously, I am somewhat biased in being around muslims frequently, however, I, and many others, have noted a sharp and dramatic increase in these so called mosqued muslims, and there have also been a number of small cities which have seen large, appreciable gains in muslim populations as well, ie Shelbyville, TN, Charlottesville, VA etc. Since none of us are professional demographers, I don’t think we’re qualified to say how easy or difficult it is to arrive at 6 million muslims in the US with or without exaggerating. But you’re absolutely right in saying it is political, the methodology of that 3 multiplication you mention was first brought to mention by a pretty right wing newspaper, IBD, and the American Jewish Congress has been routinely saying that muslims have a population of around 1 muslim or so. And it is not simply CAIR/MAS/ISNA’s methodology to multiply by 3 the number of mosqued muslims, that was a study done more than 10 years ago by a person affiliated with CAIR, not with the other two organizations, and the study being undertaken now is far more comprehensive. I can sympathize with you over the oft-quoted claims about muslim expansion and conversion, and the strong implication of islam’s superiority, however, I don’t think that automatically discounts a high number of muslims.