Talk Islam

aziz

  • 10:26:14 am on April 29, 2008 | # | |
    Tags: , ,

    America’s population will reach 1 billion in 100 years?

    http://tinyurl.com/5hpv5t

    Suppose muslims reach 5% by then. That would be 50 million.

     

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Comments

  • razib 11:53 am on April 29, 2008 | #

    “Nelson’s projection assumes that current fertility rates remain constant but that longevity and immigration will continue to rise.”

    this is probably wrong. the UN has been over-projecting population for the past 40 years because they haven’t anticipated the rapid drop in TFR. there’s a tendency for TFR to also be negatively dependent on density….

  • aziz 12:15 pm on April 29, 2008 | #

    A constant assumption for TFR doesn’t seem so unreasonable - Hispanic TFR is higher than Caucasian, and I assume that Desis are also above replacement TFR, especially muslim Desis.

    I don’t think that density is a monotonically increasing function either. The past 10-15 years have seen an outflow from dense centers to suburbs (the housing boom). Now with the collapse of the housing market the flow is reversed, with increased gas prices contributing. In another 15 years better mileage and hybrid cars, and better public transport, will make far-flung commutes attractive again. Overall, density is probably cyclic in this way. The Eats coast is probably already saturated whereas the Mountain West is wide open. There’s a lot of room to grow.

    (old post at GNXP on MT has some relevance:
    http://www.gnxp.com/MT2/archives/000882.html)

  • razib 12:57 pm on April 29, 2008 | #

    “and I assume that Desis are also above replacement TFR, especially muslim Desis. ”

    no, they’re below. you can look up, asian immigrants are all below replacement (around 1.5 or so, hindu americans are at 1.4 last i checked). i don’t know about muslim desis. muslims as a whole are above replacement, but that includes lots of blacks, arabs, africans, etc. (brown folk are around 1/4 and the more upscale element).

    immigrant TFR tends to converge upon the native one over time. e.g., ethnic roman catholic whites.

  • Zack 1:01 pm on April 29, 2008 | #

    Does a constant TFR assumption imply a constant annual growth rate?

  • razib 1:12 pm on April 29, 2008 | #

    “Does a constant TFR assumption imply a constant annual growth rate?”

    no. the age distribution, etc. effects it i think.

  • Zack 10:18 am on April 30, 2008 | #

    Census projections show an increase of 137 million or 48.8% from 2000 to 2050. Assuming the same percentage increase from 2050 to 2100, we get a total increase of 121%. Thus from 281 million in 2000 to 623 million in 2100.

    Using the CIA World Factbook estimate of 304 million in July 2008 and a growth rate of 0.883% and assuming the rate ot be constant till 2100, we get a population figure of 682 million.

    However, projections that far ahead are not worth much.

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